As we do each yr, at this time we’re going to peek again on the horrifying outcomes of final yr’s MOP employees predictions for the style and the video games inside it to find out how properly we did. In any case, what can be the enjoyable of creating predictions if we couldn’t giggle over our guesses a yr later?
So did we nail it or fail it? And did you fare higher? Let’s discover out.
- 1 World of Warcraft and Blizzard
- 2 Dawn, EverQuest, and H1Z1
- 3 Star Citizen
- 4 NCsoft, Guild Wars 2, and WildStar
- 5 Elder Scrolls, Black Desert, and FFXIV
- 6 Indie MMOs
- 7 Incoming MMOs
- 8 Future 2
- 9 EVE and CCP
- 10 PWE/Cryptic
- 11 Different MMOs
- 12 Different on-line video games
- 13 The broader business
- 14 However wait, there’s extra
World of Warcraft and Blizzard
Andrew: “World of Warcraft’s subsequent enlargement will exist, however not do in addition to the earlier ones because the mighty Titan has fallen, however individuals will nonetheless come again and luxuriate in it for a month or so earlier than ready for an additional main replace whereas they play different video games.” In truth it did slightly nicely when it comes to gross sales, even setting a gross sales report for the sport, although that’s partly right down to its now-global rollouts.
Bree: “World of Warcraft’s enlargement will do a lot better than Legion. We gained’t see Basic in 2018, nevertheless (fall 2019 is my guess). Overwatch’s e-sports push looks like a longshot to me, however I’m positive that if and when it capsizes, somebody will probably be strolling away with a ton of money and name it a win.” Sure on WoW, however Overwatch continues to be hanging in there.
Eliot: “World of Warcraft: Battle for Azeroth releases in early November after individuals repeatedly predict incorrect earlier dates for it. Island expeditions and warfronts are virtually instantly widespread (though there are stability points), whereas dungeons and raids discover a little bit of a downturn. It’s too early to inform how the sport is doing by the top of the yr, however there’s a good quantity of, ‘Wow, I assumed it was a weak premise, however the precise gameplay is surprisingly good.’” Missed the date, and most all the things else too. Look how hopeful Eliot was final yr about BFA.
Eliot: “World of Warcraft: Basic servers arrive halfway by means of the yr. They see a quick inhabitants surge, adopted by an entire lot of individuals swiftly leaving whereas claiming that the servers ere someway mismanaged as a result of they needed one thing aside from the precise true-to-vanilla servers. It’s due to bugs/stability/one thing aside from the precise inconvenience, undoubtedly. In a darkened room, a person chuckles, lights a cigar, and whispers, ‘You assume you need it, however you don’t.’ Someplace within the distance, a wolf howls.” Nonetheless not right here, however this could all carry over.
Justin: “World of Warcraft goes to have a robust yr based mostly on the brand new enlargement and basic server buzz, however it gained’t see the standard enlargement excessive based mostly on the apathy ranges of Battle for Azeroth’s bulletins.” Truthful. Apathy set in fairly early.
Dawn, EverQuest, and H1Z1
Andrew: “Dawn will retire Planetside 2 as a result of it exists however isn’t making financial institution. H1Z1 (each variations) gained’t make any main comebacks because the survival style’s time is passing. Sure, the world play fashion for [PUBG] is up, however Dawn’s child’s in all probability too previous already and dropping its following.” Nope on PS2, however H1Z1 undoubtedly struggled this yr regardless of robust PS4 efficiency; Dawn suffered layoffs, dropped Simply Survive, and is in the midst of a nasty esports scandal involving H1Z1’s professional league.
Bree: “Standing Stone will cling in there. Dawn too, however H1Z1 will nonetheless not formally launch, and Parabolic will probably be an Overwatch clone.” H1Z1 did launch, lastly, although JS sunsetted earlier than it did. We heard nothing on Parabolic. I’d forgotten the key submitting of that identify.
Eliot: “Dawn continues to flail round in search of successful vaguely like H1Z1 earlier than PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds existed, finally being unsuccessful. PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds falters a bit as nicely as soon as the novelty wears off, however Dawn makes it clear that issues don’t actually absolutely materialize. By the top of the yr, H1Z1 seems to be in actual hassle.” All hits.
Justin: “Dawn’s going to announce a brand new EverQuest title, however it gained’t be what we anticipate. Smaller studios, like SSG and Broadsword, are going to proceed to tread water with fascinating expansions and updates for his or her video games that gained’t fairly recapture former glory.” Technically true, because the NantWorks partnership will embrace an EverQuest cellular recreation.
MJ: “The EverQuest franchise could have a serious closing scare (lack of main dev, authorized troubles by by mother or father firm?), however it’s going to make it via to 2019.” I feel the layoffs, Columbus Nova mess, and NantWorks panic-moves all rely right here.
Andrew: “This yr, for positive, Star Citizen will lastly come out, however once more, it may well’t stay as much as the hype. It might be serviceable at greatest.” Nope.
Bree: “Star Citizen will ultimately get alpha three.zero out the door in March. It’ll settle that lawsuit by summer time. It gained’t launch, and the subsequent part it does promise additionally gained’t launch subsequent yr.” Proper on all counts besides the lawsuit goes on.
Eliot: “Star Citizen’s three.zero points show to be extraordinarily deep-seated and maintain hampering the sport as increasingly more backlash materializes by way of extra obscure funding strategies (like, stuff that makes the land gross sales appear downright prosaic). Squadron 42 is, at greatest, in an early check state on the finish of the yr; whether or not or not it’s marketed as a launch will rely upon too many elements to look at right here.” The absurd gross sales undoubtedly ramped up this yr, and nonetheless no S42.
Justin: “Star Citizen will get alpha three.zero out… and it is going to be plagued with points.” Now that was simply low-hanging fruit. 😛
NCsoft, Guild Wars 2, and WildStar
Bree: “NCsoft will leak information about Guild Wars 2’s subsequent enlargement, beginning the entire cycle once more. WildStar will someway handle to get one other yr of life. I’ll do this one once more: WildStar proclaims console plans, and the Blade & Soul console launch might be a windfall for the corporate.” Oddly, nothing on GW2’s subsequent massive factor is out but, so a ding there. Fallacious about WildStar too.
Eliot: “Guild Wars 2 begins the yr out robust, however a number of controversial enterprise selections hit in the midst of the yr and replace cadence slows down considerably by means of the later months. It’s nonetheless higher than life was with Coronary heart of Thorns.” That final line, you guess, however the firm was undoubtedly plagued with a number of massive messes, together with Pricegate, this yr. Spot on.
Eliot: “WildStar continues to limp together with no actual updates, ready for the precise shutdown. (Which may occur subsequent yr, truly, however I’m uninterested in guessing about when.)” Gained’t should guess anymore.
Justin: “I’m going to name it: That is the yr that WildStar will shut down. And that might be a disgrace.” Sigh. Lifeless on.
Elder Scrolls, Black Desert, and FFXIV
Eliot: “The Elder Scrolls On-line has two main updates. One is well-received and in the identical vein because the stuff that we’ve had over the previous two years; the opposite is… much less so. One step ahead and one stumble, then.” Greater than two, however I feel it’s truthful to say the chapter was better-received than the DLC.
Bree: “Elder Scrolls On-line will announce a brand new chapter. It and Black Desert will vie for dominance subsequent yr.” At this level, I’ll be extra frightened if ESO doesn’t announce one other chapter to maintain its annual sample going. Like within the subsequent week or two.
Andrew: “Present MMO darlings Elder Scrolls On-line and Ultimate Fantasy XIV will do nicely sufficient this yr. ESO will in all probability stumble with some lockbox factor as a result of, let’s face it, all video games with lockboxes do that, so doing it no less than as soon as this yr is sure to occur. Then again, FFXIV will put one thing overpriced in their very own store, however more than likely only a vainness merchandise and never one thing recreation breaking like a ghillie go well with of ganking goodness.” Each of those titles managed few stumbles this yr, to their credit score.
Eliot: “Last Fantasy XIV continues to replace on a dependable schedule and divulges its third enlargement in November, bringing gamers both to the southern or western continent. It is aware of what it’s doing and continues to do it nicely.” Yep. Enlargement introduced just some weeks again.
Eliot: “Black Desert continues to develop and increase, with one other huge panorama replace to assist spur extra participant interplay.” Yup. And one other on the best way.
MJ: “At the very least another developer/recreation will leap on the fan conference bandwagon (as extra ought to!) and it’ll an superior time to hold with devs and followers. At the least one particular announcement shall be made there!” I’m giving MJ credit score for this one as Black Desert started operating a fan conference this yr.
Andrew: “Chronicles of Elyria might get its MUD on-line, however I can’t think about far more than extra demos of the MMO correct.” Yup. Pre-alpha principally. The layoffs early within the yr didn’t assist.
Bree: “Crowfall will lastly launch and do fairly properly, however not a blockbuster. Camelot Unchained will lastly roll into beta one by late spring. Ashes of Creation vans alongside in quiet testing however doesn’t make any daring strikes in 2018. Ship of Heroes may also discover average success, beating the opposite superhero MMOs to a very playable early entry.” Bree, Crowfall isn’t gonna launch. It acquired one other delay. However CU did hit beta a few years late, Ashes pissed everybody off with battle royale and the My.com partnership, and Ship of Heroes continues to be in dev.
Eliot: “We get at the very least one shocking new title introduced that isn’t a Kickstarted probably-not-happening indie that guarantees tons of backward-looking techniques. Talking of that group, a minimum of one of many well-known smaller titles (like Chronicles of Elyria, Saga of Lucimia, Metropolis of Titans, et al.) winds up shutting down altogether. (It’s occurred earlier than.)” We might give Eliot a few factors right here: Dogma Everlasting Night time went kaput, as did 3001SQ, and Torchlight Frontiers is our massive non-KS MMO en route.
Justin: “Ashes of Creation and Crowfall are going to select up critical steam this yr and start to generate a ton of buzz.” I’d say they each picked up extra steam. Truthful.
Justin: “I feel we’ll see a winnowing of the Metropolis of Heroes successors, and that Ship of Heroes would be the recreation to return out on prime of that effort.” No one’s dropped out simply but. In reality, the three bigguns hold upping the ante.
Justin: “Camelot Unchained goes to start out its long-awaited beta check in June. Shroud of the Avatar’s launch will probably be a non-event for many players.” July, the truth is, and sure, most individuals nonetheless don’t know SOTA launched. Once more.
Justin: “Kickstarter gained’t be a factor of the previous, both; 2018 will get not one, however two main MMO crowdfunding tasks that fire up buzz.” Temtem and Fractured ought to rely for 2 to provide Justin the win right here.
MJ: “A handful of video games will truly launch launch, shocking gamers who all thought Early Entry truly means launch. One recreation will utterly forgo Early Entry and paid betas, surprising the business and endearing itself to followers.” How about we name it for MJ on this one for Wild West On-line, which reduce its early entry so brief to launch that it stunned everybody after which promptly flopped because it actually wasn’t executed?
Bree: “We’ll get a trickle of information about New World, however it’ll grow to be clearer that it gained’t be a sandbox MMORPG and can look much more like PUBG than initially deliberate. Mockingly, I don’t assume we’ll nonetheless be speaking a lot about PUBG within the west a yr from now.” Fairly shut. On each counts.
Bree: “If The Lineage (Lineage Everlasting) and Misplaced Ark do lastly launch, they gained’t have almost the impression within the west that they did years in the past when first introduced. A:IR won’t make 2018.” Nonetheless awaiting all three video games within the west.
Eliot: “Ascent: Infinite Realm launches to some combined responses at first, will get some polish passes, and is wanting very wholesome because it begins testing within the west.” Nope.
Eliot: “Amazon’s recreation studio continues to place out a grand complete of nothing. Whee.” Hey, does a ton of screenshots on Twitter and an alpha no one’s allowed to speak about rely as nothing? Sure? OK.
Justin: “Amazon’s New World will ultimately be confirmed to be vaporware, however John Smedley’s group goes to return out with a neat little MMO factor that will get us excited in his visions once more.” Not vaporware, however individuals are undoubtedly excited for Smed’s visions.
Andrew: “Future 2 won’t do properly. Bungie will proceed to wrestle to make it cool once more, however lighting appears to have escaped the bottle. Amazon could also be engaged on video games, however I don’t assume we’ll see something from them this yr.” Truthful.
Bree: “Future 2 gained’t recuperate, regardless of in style DLC, and Bungie will transfer on to the subsequent factor.” Additionally truthful.
Eliot: “Future 2 has a minor revival mid-year as its underlying points lastly begin to be patched out and glued, however there’s nonetheless no speak about Future three and even rumors of similar. The sport finds its area of interest because it turns into extra convincingly MMO-esque.” Man, no one round right here has any religion for Future 2. Neither does Bungie, apparently, because it was actually giving the sport away at BlizzCon.
EVE and CCP
Bree: “Hilmar Petursson will exit CCP and EVE will hover because it does now.” Petursson’s nonetheless there, however the buyers did principally promote the entire firm to Pearl Abyss and lose a ton of devs together with Andie Nordgren, so, um, there’s that.
Eliot: “EVE On-line spends the yr principally in restoration mode; quite than CCP spinning out extra massive and costly tasks, it focuses on doubling down with its present content material. Issues are wanting up extra towards the top of the yr, though there’s a sure diploma of participant apprehension targeted across the recreation’s monetary well being.” On this case, given the sale, it looks like CCP Video games might be tasked with recent new titles, however all anchored on EVE.
Bree: “Cryptic will cancel the Magic MMO it’s engaged on, however in any other case, PWE does advantageous with its entire secure.” Not canceled, however tremendous quiet. And none of us obtained Torchlight right here!
Eliot: “Cryptic reveals particulars on its Magic: the Gathering MMO, with launch scheduled for late 2018 or early 2019. Individuals who love Cryptic’s different video games are going to take pleasure in it, and it’ll usher in some new blood. It’s going to nonetheless function some obtrusive lockbox stuff.” Nonetheless at the hours of darkness on this.
Bree: “Funcom will proceed tinkering on the video games it maintenance-moded and fall again on Secret World Legends content material.” Surprisingly, Funcom did simply this.
Bree: “Trion will put RIFT on console.” Fail right here. I had been predicting this as a wild card for years. Defiance, nevertheless, did make it to console this yr, simply earlier than, uh, the entire firm imploded and was bought to Gamigo. Yikes.
Bree: “BioWare gained’t get any bounce off The Final Jedi for SWTOR and proceed its anemic updates.” Appears truthful.
Eliot: “TERA does all proper on consoles, however it exhibits its age. A number of extra import MMOs open, a couple of extra shut, because it all the time has been.” Yeah.
MJ: “Season 2 of Secret World Legends will launch and will probably be superb! Veterans and new gamers alike will probably be frothing on the mouth wanting extra as a result of cliffhangers might be concerned. One thing surprising occurs with a well known/beloved NPC.” Welp, it undoubtedly acquired some stuff this yr. Frothing, perhaps not.
Bree: “The F2P pushes for Ultima On-line and Darkish Age of Camelot will make mainstream information for a day however not likely pull in new gamers within the lengthy haul.” Broadsword didn’t launch numbers, however this feels truthful to me. DAOC’s F2P was pushed into 2019.
Andrew: “Warner Bros (which sadly owns Turbine) will proceed to make dangerous cellular titles of widespread IPs and I’ll proceed crying myself to sleep figuring out they personal the rights to Asheron’s Name however gained’t do something with it (please, please Santa, let this be the one factor I’m flawed about!).” No. -Santa
Different on-line video games
Bree: “Sea of Thieves, then again, will rope in a ton of MMORPG gamers.” It appears to have executed properly, however MMORPG gamers appear to have sussed out the griefing issues forward of time and stayed away…
Justin: “I’ll lose myself in Sea of Thieves for about two months straight.” …Justin included.
MJ: “Following the very, very delayed launch of ARK’s third DLC (which can once more break the bottom recreation), Wildcard declares a brand new recreation that shall be going to early entry.” Nonetheless nothing non-ARK from Wildcard, although the sport did hit the Change.
MJ: “Warframe will take one other lengthy stride into MMOness and be ‘found’ by extra MMO gamers (however it’s going to nonetheless not formally launch =P).” Yep on all counts.
The broader business
Andrew: “VR might proceed to see a push on console and cellular, however I feel its PC time (particularly for MMO) gained’t see any main renewal outdoors of perhaps no matter work’s completed on the Sword Artwork On-line recreation. Talking of cellular, yeah, anticipate extra cellular MMOs, particularly from Asia, however at this level, don’t anticipate them to ‘get’ the western market but. I’m truly nonetheless battling it myself!” Virtually no one is speaking about VR anymore. Yep.
Andrew: “Nintendo will proceed to skirt the sting between multiplayer video games with social media group occasions tying into bigger narratives and precise MMO however nonetheless refuse to commit to creating the latter. Pokemon Go, particularly, will proceed testing the waters.” Truthful. POGO will get increasingly MMOish on a regular basis, regardless of Nintendo.
Bree: “Undoubtedly assume we’ll see extra corporations grudgingly displaying transparency on lockboxes and making an attempt to go off laws (which can come anyway) by enjoying properly whereas the instructor’s watching.” We didn’t get rather more transparency this yr, apart from video games like Dota 2, that are kowtowing extra to China’s legal guidelines than to the western push, however the lawsuits and laws maintain coming.
Eliot: “Subsequent yr sees some shakeups throughout the style, with some well-known titles shutting down and a few others moving into locations of renewed prominence. We additionally see extra titles embracing the pseudo-MMO facet that has grow to be much more widespread in ostensibly single-player titles, together with at the least one title that really supplies an fascinating query of whether or not or not it truly is an MMO or simply shut to at least one.” I’ve but to write down our sunsets-of-2018 article but, however my skim of the listing exhibits surprisingly few main MMORPGs, aside from WildStar, kicked the bucket this yr. The pseudo-MMOs simply maintain piling up, although.
Justin: “We’re undoubtedly going to see far fewer new MOBAs and much more ‘battle royale’ shooters, as a result of copycatting is a continuing.” Completely so.
MJ: “Survival sandboxes will proceed to be a well-liked design selection, however corporations should begin getting extra artistic with distinctive hooks to differentiate their recreation from the huge sea of comparable titles.” Yep. Survival video games that aren’t Fortnite clones nonetheless do fairly nicely.
MJ: “As an alternative of lessening, lockboxes will discover their approach into much more single-player and co-op video games — even TV exhibits and streamin providers! New ‘no lootboxes’ lootbox mechanics might be launched.” The endcaps of Goal aisles have freaking lockboxes.
MJ: “Nothing will even come remotely near having as feature-rich a digital world as SWG, and Bree and I’ll lament that reality a minimum of 142 occasions.” And right here we’re. Although I solved my drawback with simply enjoying a SWG Emu. Fastened.
However wait, there’s extra
Eliot: “I’ll eat a burrito bowl.” It occurred.
MJ: “Mo’s secret relationship lastly involves mild!” It was with the burrito bowl. RIP.